Drought is Mostly Centered in the Great Plains and Midwest

Heavy to excessive rainfall significantly improved or removed drought from parts of the Northeast and south-central Great Plains. The heaviest amounts fell in a broken pattern from lower New York through Vermont, and in a swath from central Oklahoma through the fringes of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Many of these areas recorded over 6 inches of rain, with totals approaching 9 inches in a few isolated spots. Lesser but still heavy amounts exceeding 3 inches fell on portions of the central Plains, Texas Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi Valley, interior Southeast, Carolina Coastline, and upper Great Lakes Region, allowing drought to ease in some of these areas.

In contrast, other parts of Texas, the middle and upper Mississippi Valley, the lower Great Lakes, and the central and northern Dakotas received only several tenths of an inch of precipitation at best, resulting in several areas of deepening drought. Hot weather from the desert Southwest through the southern Plains and across Florida exacerbated drought conditions there. West of the Rockies, seasonably dry conditions prevailed.

Looking Ahead...

Over the next 5 days (July 13 - 17) heavy precipitation is expected across Missouri and adjacent areas, where some of the most acute rainfall deficits have been observed recently. Amounts of 1.5 to locally over 3.0 inches are expected. Similarly heavy rains are anticipated in the eastern Lower Mississippi Valley, the central Appalachians, the southeastern Great Lakes Region, much of New England and the adjacent Northeast, parts of the mid-Atlantic Region, and southern Florida. Additional flooding is possible in portions of New England. Light to locally moderate rain is anticipated in most other locations east of the Mississippi River and across the central and south-central Great Plains. In contrast, most of Texas should see little if any precipitation, and seasonable dryness is expected west of the Rockies. Hot weather is anticipated along the southern tier of the country from the desert Southwest eastward through much of Florida, especially later in the period.

During the ensuing 5 days (July 18 - 22), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) favors above normal temperatures across most of the contiguous 48 states, with odds leaning toward near or slightly below normal temperatures only in most of Washington, and in a swath from the northern Plain eastward across the upper Midwest and northern Appalachians through the lower Northeast. Dry weather is favored to continue across Texas and in most of the Intermountain West and Northwest. Increasing monsoonal activity is expected in southern Arizona and adjacent areas, where odds slightly favor above-normal precipitation. A slight tilt of the odds toward wetter than normal weather also covers the central and northern Plains, the Northeast and adjacent mid-Atlantic Region, and southern Florida.