March ‘World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates’
LIVESTOCK & POULTRY:
For 2023, the beef production forecast is raised from last month. Slaughter projections are raised through the first three quarters of the year on higher cow slaughter and increased placements of cattle in feedlots in the first quarter of 2023, which will likely be marketed in the third quarter.
For 2023, cattle prices are raised for all four quarters on expectations of firm demand amidst tightening feedlot numbers. Hog prices are lowered for first-half 2023 reflecting current price movements. Broiler prices are projected higher in the first quarter on recent data.
Pork production is lowered as a higher-than-previously expected pace of slaughter in the first quarter is more than offset by lighter first-half carcass weights.
Broiler and turkey production is raised for the first quarter on recent hatchery data and the current pace of slaughter.
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of sales and shipments to date despite relatively competitive U.S. prices. With no other use changes, ending stocks are up 75 million bushels from last month.
The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.60 per bushel based on reported prices to date.
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast 3.2 million tons lower to 1,439.6 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for reduced production, consumption, and ending stocks relative to last month.
The 2022/23 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price remains $9.00 per bushel.
The 2022/23 global outlook this month is for slightly smaller supplies, increased trade and consumption, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are lowered slightly as an increase in production nearly offsets a decrease in beginning stocks, which are lowered mostly on an increase for China 2020/21 feed and residual use.